The  analysis of public health policies involves tradeoff between health outcomes and socio-economic costs.

Such analysis  cannot be solely based on historical data and can benefit from forward-looking models which enable  counterfactual scenario analysis  and the assessment of the efficiency of policies.

We present an approach for the risk assessment and comparative analysis of public health policies based on a concept of efficiency which takes into account the tradeoff between costs and health outcomes.

We illustrate our approach through the example of containment policies for COVID in England during the 2020-2022 pandemic.

Joint work with Artur Kotlicki (Bank of England) and Renyuan Xu (USC).

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